It Doesn't Look Too F%^kin Good...

In what can only be described with the old war term of "preparing the ground", there have been a couple of ominous news stories in the past 48 hours regarding the expiring NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement. Both the Players Association and the Owners seem to want it known that both of them are digging in their heels for a very lengthy work stoppage.

Yesterday Baltimore Ravens owner Steve "Not Art Modell" Bisciotti decided to hold out his empty tin can and cry poor for the rest of the owners with this story. According to Bisciotti, most of the teams are struggling to finish in the black financially. More specifically, he stated that he has partners whose teams are "...making less money than their linebackers...". He also pointed out other franchises such as Jacksonville who have resorted to pulling an MLB Oakland A's type of move and tarping up 10,000 seats to avoid regular blackouts. He also echoed fears that the NFL would turn into a league of haves vs have not's without a salary cap .

Not to be outdone 24 hours later, NFL Players Association Executive Director DeMaurice "Not Gene Upshaw" Smith stated that on a scale of 1 to 10 of the likelihood of a lockout, the chances are at a "14", in his mind. He claims that the owners are asking for roughly an 18% pay cut per player. Smith went on to point out that the owners are getting $5 billion from their TV deals regardless if football is played in 2011, and that teams values have increased "almost 500% over the past 15 years. Smith is also interested in creating a "Legacy Fund" for increased support for retired players.

At the root of all this tough talk, is the current Collective Bargaining Agreement that was reached in March 2006. That agreement provided substantial increases in players salaries and bonuses because the players became entitled to 60% of the league revenues, up from 55%. The Owners are now furious with themselves that they signed off on such an agreement and are attempting to get it back.

According to Smith, the owners want the players to be entitled to only 41% of the league revenues, while the league would shave $1 billion off the top of the roughly $8 billion the NFL Generates. NFL Executive VP and chief counsel Jeff Pash states that the $1 billion is for annual incurred costs (i.e. NFL Network, NFL.com, etc) which are designed to create additional revenue streams, which the players already know about because they get 50% of it. Pash also states that the owners have never asked for an 18% pay cut, to which NFL PA President Kevin Mawae says, "That is absolutely not true they've asked for 18%".

Like the title suggests, it doesn't look too f&*kin good in terms of avoiding a work stoppage. Who knows if it will happen, let alone if these really are the disputes that are involved. One interesting aspect of this that hasn't really been discussed is the amount of potential litigation that will be involved. It got particularly ugly during the last two NFL work stoppages in 1982 and 1987. Will the NFLPA De-certify again in order to pursue anti-trust litigation against the Owners? If players are locked out without a union, it's a certain anti-trust violation.

Unfortunately for us fans, both sides are short-sighted and arrogant enough to think a work stoppage is a good idea. Let's hope that they actually realize that the real good idea is to get a labor agreement done and play football in 2011. The fans will have no tolerance or empathy for another "millionaires vs billionaires" squabble. While the NFL does need things fixed (i.e. outrageous money for first round Rookie Draft Picks), a work stoppage would be the equivalent of dropping a nuclear bomb to get rid of an anthill. Despite this, the 2011 season is in serious jeopardy.