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Monday, April 26, 2010

WHEW!

My first reaction to the Chicago Blackhawks 5-3 win tonight over the Nashville Predators was "Thank F'ing God THAT'S Over!" While on paper this shouldn't have been too difficult a task for the Hawks to have run roughshod over the lowly Preds, this is the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and when it comes to the Stanley Cup Playoffs, there are no easy victories. That rings particularly true in matchups involving 2 seeds versus the 7 seeds. Since the 1993-1994 Playoff Format change, the 7 seed has eliminated the 2 seed 46% of the time. For a few times this series, it looked like the Blackhawks would add to that 46%...


The Predators gave the Hawks all they could handle. For the most part, they really dictated the pace of play by slowing it down, closing off the passing lanes, killing penalties, and riding 6'5" Pekka Rinne for as far as they could. In all honesty, the Predators came THIS close to pulling it off with a Game 5 win on Saturday, if not for the Hawks (sorry Al Michaels) miraculous snatching (SNAAAAATCH) of victory from the jaws of defeat at the end of regulation and Overtime. BTW I still can't believe Hossa wasn't suspended for the exact same damn hit Ovechkin put on Brian "Soupy" Campbell a month earlier?! That's one thing you can always count on the NHL Brass for...GLARING inconsistency.


In the end though, the Hawks star players, played like star players when they needed to. Tonight's victory was no exception. Duncan Keith scoring his first goal of the series, Patrick Sharp scoring his third, Patrick Kane chipped in his fourth goal, and Jonathan Toews with his second goal of the series, combined with killing off 8:27 minutes worth of Nashville Power Play, was more than enough to advance the Hawks into the second round to face the hated Vancouver Canucks.


As you can tell by reading this blog, The Beard doesn't pretend to be a Hockey expert. If I were to speculate with the little knowledge I have, I'd say the Hawks shouldn't have nearly the headache with the Canucks as they did the Predators. While the Predators provided a blueprint on how to beat the Hawks, they also had the personnel to play that style and have been playing it all season. I don't believe that will be the case in this series.

Vancouver was third in Power Play Goals, and second overall in Goals Scored in 2009-10. The Hawks on the other hand while finishing third in Goals Scored, yet barely in the top 20 in Power Play Goals, also finished fourth in Penalty Killing Percentage, third in Power Play Goals allowed, and third in Power Play Opportunities Against. The Canucks are hanging around the Top 20 in the last two categories.

So while Vancouver is lethal on the Power Play, the Hawks are just as lethal in Penalty Killing. The Hawks on the other hand score most of their goals when both teams are at even strength, and are not nearly as dependent on the Power Play to create their scoring chances as Vancouver. So as long as they avoid as many penalties as they can, and display the continued excellence they've shown in killing penalties, they should be just fine against the Canucks.

Again though, considering that I've come to agree that the Stanley Cup is the toughest Championship to win in all of Team Sports, there is just no way to predict what will happen...

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