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Wednesday, March 30, 2011

2011 Chicago Cubs Preview

If there is an expression that best encapsulates the 2011 Chicago Cubs for me, it would be "In Between". That's where the Cubs organization and roster stand from my perspective. They still have a pretty big financial hangover to shake off in the form of $92 million dollars still tied up in 6 players this season. They are still being run by a man who is responsible for said financial hangover in Jim Hendry. They have an ownership group that keeps shooting themselves in the foot, public relations wise.


With all that said though, there are some positives with this ballclub, and it would be somewhat foolish to rule this team out as possible division winners.


The Good -


Cupboard Isn't Barren : While the Cubs still have a lot of veterans that are past their primes (Fukudome, Soriano, and Aramis to name a few), they also have some good young players on the roster and a few prospects that show a good degree of promise. Tyler Colvin, Starlin Castro, and Andrew Cashner showed flashes while establishing themselves last season. Colvin continues to be a bit of a hybrid hitter (not quite a slugger, not quite a pure line drive hitter). Cashner has the confidence from management to be the fifth starter in the rotation. The main centerpiece however is Castro.


It was pretty difficult to not be impressed with Castro last season. Still just 21 years old, he showed shades of Shawon Dunston with very good range, strong arm and good plate coverage. Unlike Dunston however, Castro should/will actually improve with time rather than be the perpetual rookie that Dunston was his entire career. Castro also continues to impress the coaching staff that he's ready to work and is very dedicated to improving himself. All-Star considerations should happen this season for him.


Waiting in the wings is blue chip centerfield prospect Brett Jackson, who has been given the dreaded "5 Tool Player" reputation along with promising pitchers Chris Archer, Trey McNutt, and "The Other" Chris Carpenter who have each impressed the scouts.


Pitching : Believe it or not, the Cubs starting rotation might be the best in the division 1-4, but unfortunately two of those pitchers aren't exactly reliable. Matt Garza has been very erratic throughout his career, same for Carlos Zambrano. If those two are throwing well, the Cubs rotation will be lethal. If they continue to regress, it will sink the whole ship. Either way it won't be boring.


The bullpen should be better since they got a big lift from an old friend in Kerry Wood thanks to the hometown discount he gave the Cubs. Carlos Marmol put up a historic strikeout rate (4th highest of all time) last season, and Shawn Marshall finally has found a role as a late inning reliever. Bullpens can carry a team when they're not going well, and the Cubs bullpen should be a vast improvement from where they were going into 2010.


The Bad -


What Did You Buy? - With a payroll stretched thin as it is, and now having to eat Carlos Silva's money...why did they drop $10 million on Carlos Pena? I'm not sure what he will do for the Cubs? Pena is a nice guy by all accounts, and understands his place in baseball, but he's coming off yet another statistically weird season of .196 batting average with 28 home runs. Pena's career has been a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. Maybe he'll be great, maybe he won't, but $10 million ($5 mil deffered) is too much money to gamble on a Carlos Pena-even if it is for a year.


"The Other Assholes" -Fukudome, Soriano, and Aramis are still on this team. Do I really need to waste any more words on them? There is nothing I can write about those three that hasn't already been written 8 times over from other people, so I'm not going to bother.


Prediction -


I believe the Cubs will have around 82 wins, which is enough to contend in the NL Central. I'm looking forward to seeing the good young players develop this season, as well as find out what kind of manager Mike Quade ends up being. In the end, I don't think they are balanced enough to win the division. Next season though, the Cubs will have a ton of bad money falling off the books. If they're smart, they won't bother urinating it away on Albert Pujols, but rather spend money on a couple of key players to round out the club...

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