Super Bowl Prediction

As hopeful as I am about the Saints chances to win the Super Bowl, The Beard just doesn't see it happening. The Saints defense will simply not be good enough to stop or slow down Peyton Manning. Also, the Saints offense is too uptempo to hold onto the ball and control of the clock.

Final Score : Colts 39-Saints 28.

Payback

Now that's how you handle your business Dayton Flyers! Dayton beat Xavier 90-65 earlier this afternoon and with the win, knocked Xavier out of first place in the Atlantic 10. The Flyers showed that when both Chris Johnson and Chris Wright are on their game they are a dangerous basketball team, particularly lethal at UD Arena. Dayton opened things up with a 17-3 run to start the game and never looked back.

This game in many respects was the polar opposite of the previous Dayton-Xavier matchup three weeks earlier. Dayton played with tenacity, rather than timidness. The Flyers continued to showcase their blueprint of excellent defense and rebounding with 6 blocked shots, and outrebounded Xavier 42-21. Two big differences were Dayton's Free Throw percentage, and 3 Point Field Goal Percentage. Dayton shot 72% from the line, versus 64% against Xavier in January, and the Flyers were 7-13 from beyond the arc versus 6-20 in January.

In the words of a fellow Dayton Alumn and good friend, "This was a Michigan State type of Victory" today. The kind of blowout home victory against a good opponent that the Flyer Faithful are expecting from the Brian Gregory era. Up next is an even bigger test at home in the first place in the A-10 Charlotte 49ers. Dayton has a major opportunity to reassert themselves in the A-10 standings with a victory, plus the table is set with upcoming games against Temple and Richmond prior to the start of the A-10 Tournament. "Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more..."

It Doesn't Look Too F%^kin Good...

In what can only be described with the old war term of "preparing the ground", there have been a couple of ominous news stories in the past 48 hours regarding the expiring NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement. Both the Players Association and the Owners seem to want it known that both of them are digging in their heels for a very lengthy work stoppage.

Yesterday Baltimore Ravens owner Steve "Not Art Modell" Bisciotti decided to hold out his empty tin can and cry poor for the rest of the owners with this story. According to Bisciotti, most of the teams are struggling to finish in the black financially. More specifically, he stated that he has partners whose teams are "...making less money than their linebackers...". He also pointed out other franchises such as Jacksonville who have resorted to pulling an MLB Oakland A's type of move and tarping up 10,000 seats to avoid regular blackouts. He also echoed fears that the NFL would turn into a league of haves vs have not's without a salary cap .

Not to be outdone 24 hours later, NFL Players Association Executive Director DeMaurice "Not Gene Upshaw" Smith stated that on a scale of 1 to 10 of the likelihood of a lockout, the chances are at a "14", in his mind. He claims that the owners are asking for roughly an 18% pay cut per player. Smith went on to point out that the owners are getting $5 billion from their TV deals regardless if football is played in 2011, and that teams values have increased "almost 500% over the past 15 years. Smith is also interested in creating a "Legacy Fund" for increased support for retired players.

At the root of all this tough talk, is the current Collective Bargaining Agreement that was reached in March 2006. That agreement provided substantial increases in players salaries and bonuses because the players became entitled to 60% of the league revenues, up from 55%. The Owners are now furious with themselves that they signed off on such an agreement and are attempting to get it back.

According to Smith, the owners want the players to be entitled to only 41% of the league revenues, while the league would shave $1 billion off the top of the roughly $8 billion the NFL Generates. NFL Executive VP and chief counsel Jeff Pash states that the $1 billion is for annual incurred costs (i.e. NFL Network, NFL.com, etc) which are designed to create additional revenue streams, which the players already know about because they get 50% of it. Pash also states that the owners have never asked for an 18% pay cut, to which NFL PA President Kevin Mawae says, "That is absolutely not true they've asked for 18%".

Like the title suggests, it doesn't look too f&*kin good in terms of avoiding a work stoppage. Who knows if it will happen, let alone if these really are the disputes that are involved. One interesting aspect of this that hasn't really been discussed is the amount of potential litigation that will be involved. It got particularly ugly during the last two NFL work stoppages in 1982 and 1987. Will the NFLPA De-certify again in order to pursue anti-trust litigation against the Owners? If players are locked out without a union, it's a certain anti-trust violation.

Unfortunately for us fans, both sides are short-sighted and arrogant enough to think a work stoppage is a good idea. Let's hope that they actually realize that the real good idea is to get a labor agreement done and play football in 2011. The fans will have no tolerance or empathy for another "millionaires vs billionaires" squabble. While the NFL does need things fixed (i.e. outrageous money for first round Rookie Draft Picks), a work stoppage would be the equivalent of dropping a nuclear bomb to get rid of an anthill. Despite this, the 2011 season is in serious jeopardy.

Madden Prediction

Found this link on Yahoo Sports. The EA Sports Simulator for the video game Madden 2010 predicts the Saints will upset the Colts 35-31 in a shootout. You can find the link to the highlight reel here. In case you were wondering, Madden's prediction record is 5-1 in the past 6 years. Anyway, I thought it was pretty cool .

351...351...Rover Set HUT HUT!

Have I mentioned how worthless I think Super Bowl Week is? It's even worse when the Bulls go on an amazing 5 game road winning streak against good Western Conference teams, and then lay 2 eggs against the Clippers and 76ers. Plus, just for good measure, the Blackhawks drop one at home to the hated St. Louis Blues, to give us back to back losses after an amazing OT win against San Jose last Thursday.

Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk gave two similar takes on whether or not Martz and Cutler will fail or flourish. Both of them agree that it will come down to Cutler checking his ego in favor of Martz's, grasping the terminology and reads, but mainly that the offensive line will need to provide excellent blocking in order for it to succeed. Sounds familiar...David Haugh wants the Bears to install field turf at Soldier Field. There are currently 6 non-domed stadiums in the NFL that use Field Turf, or some synthetic turf as their playing surface, so it's not that unheard of. To install it for $1.5 million dollars just for a new Offensive Coordinator who may be gone after next season seems a bit short-sighted however...

There is one positive about Super Bowl week though. It reminds of the movie that launched the career of Jim Carrey into the Stratosphere, Ace Ventura : Pet Detective. That movie takes place during the week before the Super Bowl, coincidentally in Miami. Here's one of my favorite scenes from that movie. It still makes me laugh every time I see it. Enjoy!

Media Day Fun

Today was media day for the Colts and Saints in South Florida. Even though nobody really cares about any of it, for some reason it still happens. Sports Illustrated posted a fun list of "All Time Dumbest Super Bowl Questions, and you can read the list here.

The Best Way To Get A Bears Coaching Job = Default

So Lovie Smith got his guy Mike Martz after all. As stated numerous times on this blog, Martz is not the best hire for this job. Since everyone else who had the chance to take it (figuratively) urinated on the Bears, might as well give it to the guy who actually wants it right? That's pretty much what has happened here, and what is still currently happening with the open defensive coordinator position...but that's a whole other big bag of monkey turds...

One thing The Beard will say in favor of Martz, he hasn't forgotten how to say the right things when he gets a new job. He did some big time kissing, and came back gushing about his meeting with Jay Cutler. Using words such as "...better than anticipated..." and "...instant connection..." to describe his encounter with Jay. What was particularly interesting to hear, was how surprised he was that Cutler has the mind and recognition of a ten year veteran already. That's a pretty good start to a honeymoon. Who knows how long the good feelings will last? Odds are, not very long...

He then said some things that are flat out fibs however. Things like comparing Matt Forte to Marshall Faulk, and insisting Greg Olsen will be featured in his offense, even though that's blatantly not true. Don't believe me? Go ask Vernon Davis of the San Francisco 49ers, who mysteriously busted out for 78 receptions, 13 TD's, and made the Pro Bowl the very next season after the Niners (specifically Mike Singletary) fired Martz. Mike Martz's scheme is heavily dependent on blocking Tight Ends, and Greg Olsen is very far from that.

That being said though, Martz is at the very least enthusiastic about what he has available, and the task he has in front of him. He seems to understand this is not a long term project, and that the goal is to win right now. He is sure to butt heads with Cutler and plenty of other players and coaches along the way, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything. It will come down to his understanding of personnel, focusing on what they do well, what they do poorly, adapting his scheme to maximize the best plays for success, and make sure Mike Tice gets this offensive line ready to be able to block people for 7 seconds each play. Here's hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst.