Love Love The Perfecto...But What Have We Learned So Far?

That was the question this White Sox fan asked himself today, and the short answer is: not much. Obviously that's to be expected after 15 games, and I'm certainly not trying to draw conclusions about the Sox or any team right now. I mean, are we to expect the Washington Nationals to be playing .750 baseball for 162 games? I certainly don't think so. With all that said, it would still be nice to have at least a general idea of how good or bad the White Sox are, yet I'm still scratching my head...

The White Sox, save for A.J. Pierzynski and Paul Konerko, aren't particularly great offensively. Despite the much improved Adam Dunn, this lineup still features the putrid Dayan Viciedo, Gordon Beckham, and Brent Morel. Entering today's game, all three of the aforementioned automatic outs have batting averages below the Mendoza Line, and wOBA's below .250. These three are supposed to be the future of the franchise in case you forgot.

Oh and please don't let me forget to mention that the Sox are 2nd in the American League in strikeouts (128), and 10th in the American League in Team OBP (.310). The only thing keeping the Sox competitive is their 6th place showing in the AL in Home Runs (17) and the corresponding Team OPS of .729 which is in the top half of the AL.

Despite their offensive challenges, the White Sox have pitched exceptionally well. The big three starting pichers thus far appear to be Jake Peavy - who is finally pitching like he's capable of, Chris Sale - who has made a smooth transition from reliever to starter (knock wood), and the freshly historic (if there is such a thing) Phillip Humber, who pitched the 21st Perfect Game in the history of baseball on Saturday. More on Humber in a moment.

There is plenty of irony to point out in this solid pitching staff however, the first of which is that the newly extended $65 million dollar man John Danks, has not exactly been dominant with his 5.11 ERA. Gavin Floyd continues to have control problems (4.08 BB/9), and the worst pitcher on the staff by the numbers is the White Sox closer Hector Santiago (5.40 ERA).

Despite the Irony based on Small Sample Size, the White Sox are currently 3rd in the AL in Team ERA (3.16) and 2nd in the AL in WHIP (1.10). There's a lot of ways this performance can be summarized but I think the expression "pleasantly surprised" is most accurate.

What does it all mean? Well the data doesn't really support any conclusions as of yet, and it won't for some time. The Sox are winning games on the road (6-2) yet still continue to struggle at home (3-4). Maybe I'll get a better understanding when I see them in person this week in Oakland, but for now - mathematically speaking - what the hell, right?

Back to Phillip Humber's historic performance however, my new favorite White Sox blog SouthSideSox.com did an outstanding job analyzing and breaking down how it happened. Not to mention it's the only place I've found that actually answers the question of whether or not Brendan Ryan swung at the final strike. You can read their outstanding work here, and here.

When I watched the replay (thank you Fox for not showing the game outside of Chicago) of the game a few things stood out to me. Humber's curveball, slider, and fastball were all working obviously, but I was amazed at all the weak fly balls Humber induced when he wasn't striking people out.

One play that I haven't seen talked about much occurred in the bottom of the 6th inning. With 2 out and (obviously) nobody on, the Mariners shortstop Munenori Kawasaki attempted to break up the Perfect Game with a BUNT! Maybe I'm imagining things, but I was under the impression that attempting to break up a no-no with a Bunt was forbidden under the Unwritten Rules of Baseball? Did anybody else see that, agree with that, or think I'm silly for even bringing it up? Either way Humber fielded the ball and nothing changed except the number of outs.

13 fly ball outs, 5 ground ball outs, and 9 strikeouts total on the day is not bad work to say the least. Humber now becomes the second pitcher under Don Cooper's watch to throw a Perfect Game. Will it mean big things for the White Sox this season? I doubt it, but who knows?

Either way I already feel better about this team than I did a year ago. Maybe the new manager might have something to do with my optimism too????

MLB Season Predictions 2012

Have I mentioned before how much I despise MLB Commissioner Allan H. “Bud” Selig? Obviously I have numerous times, yet despite decades of incompetence, Bud has provided another reason to continue the widespread hatred he naturally attracts by screwing up one of the easiest things. Thanks to Bud, we now have FOUR OPENING DAYS! Opening Day is not a complicated concept. As a matter of fact, it’s about as basic as basic gets, yet Bud has decided that making money is more important than having one day for the season to start, so here we are…

Be that as it may, it’s still one of my favorite times of the year, and despite the not-too-rosy outlook for either Chicago baseball team, I’m excited for this upcoming baseball season.

The main reason I find this upcoming season so interesting is that the landscape of competition has dramatically changed. No longer is it just the Red Sox and Yankees spending close to $200 million on their respective payrolls. Thanks to some very lucrative TV Deals (among other things), multiple teams that were once considered “small market”, are now throwing money around like Pac Man Jones at a Strip Club.

• $200 million to keep Joey Votto in Cincinnati? Check.

• $245 million to get Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell to the Marlins? Why Not?!

• $214 million to get Prince Fielder to play for his father’s Detroit Tigers? Sure.

All of this money being spent by teams not named the Yankees and Red Sox, as well as the introduction of a second Wild Card slot for the postseason, has leveled the playing field and should open up competition, which should make for a very fun season. Here are my predictions for the regular season, post season, and a few sentences about each team.

American League East:

1. New York Yankees: Despite Curtis Granderson returning to earth from his monster season last year, they’ll score enough to win the division, but their starting rotation will (once again) be exposed in October, as the entire roster continues to age with few prospects on the horizon.

2. Tampa Bay Rays: To quote Rocky from Looney Tunes – “I don’t know how’s youse done it, but I KNOW YOUSE DONE IIIIIT!” Nobody really has figured out how the Rays’ continue to make postseason appearances, but nearest I can tell it’s Run Prevention, One Ace starting pitcher in combination with Evan Longoria and some decent slugging percentages sprinkled throughout the lineup. They’ll make the postseason again, and we’ll still be scratching our heads.

3. Boston Red Sox: The post-Theo era has begun, and they’ll still have plenty of reminders of Epstein sprinkled throughout the lineup both good and bad. The good involves Ellsbury, Pedroia, Gonzalez, and Lester. The bad? Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, and John Lackey (shudder).

4. Toronto Blue Jays: The Washington Nationals American League equivalent. The Blue Jays are close but they’re not quite there yet. Obviously they still have the most suspicious superstar in the game in Jose Bautista, in addition to some really good young players (looking at you Brett Lawrie). Unfortunately they are still missing an Ace starting pitcher to put them over the hump.

5. Baltimore Orioles: Are they even trying anymore? Seriously? They actually have a couple of good players in Wieters, Markakis, and Adam Jones. After that, it’s just a pile of black and orange puke from the owner on down. At least the hats will look cool though.

American League Central:

1. Detroit Tigers: What do you do when you already have one of the best hitters at first base? You sign another one of course! Seriously, they have two monsters in the middle of an already potent lineup, not to mention the best pitcher in the game surrounded by a sound rotation and capable bullpen. Tigers win the division easily.

2. Chicago White Sox: read Here.

3. Cleveland Indians: Year 5 of a rebuilding process that hasn’t gone well. How bad? Turns out one of their “pieces” Fausto Carmona isn’t really named Fausto Carmona but rather Roberto Hernandez Hereida. Did I mention he’s also 3 years older than he said he was? Still, at least he’s not Matt LaPorta.

4. Kansas City Royals: The good? Alex Gordon finally showed he can hit. Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Lorenzo Cain are going to get more playing time. The Bad? Bruce Chen is still their ace, which means you really don’t have a rotation.

5. Minnesota Twins: I might be wrong about this one, but Justin Morneau is still “dingy” in the head, Joe Mauer has become a singles hitter, Carl Pavano is still the head of the rotation, and the left side of the infield is not very good. The good news for the Twins however, Terry Ryan is back as GM and it’s only a matter of time before the Twins contend again. Just not this season.

American League West:

1. Texas Rangers: They don’t have a slugging first baseman….and that’s it. The Rangers are pretty much covered everywhere else. Sure they lost CJ Wilson, but they rolled the dice and acquired Japanese pitching sensation Yu Darvish. Their lineup is still solid-to-lethal (when healthy) and their bullpen should be better with Joe Nathan on board.

2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The Angels would be a World Series lock if this were the year 2003. That’s the year that their two highest paid players were in their prime in Vernon Wells and Torii Hunter (remember Albert Pujols’ deal is incredibly back-loaded). However, Wells and Hunter won’t be counted on for the bulk of their offense anymore, since Pujols will definitely provide plenty by himself. Their rotation of Weaver, Haren, and Wilson will propel them to wild card contention.

3. Oakland A’s: A big bag of “weird”. The A’s are putting all their eggs in the San Jose 2014 Basket. The problem is, the San Jose 2014 Basket might not (and probably doesn’t) exist! The A’s are young, might be pretty good eventually, but definitely have a player worth watching in Yoenis Cespedes. Oh and apparently they are the only team that believes Manny Ramirez can still hit an inside fastball….good luck with that.

4. Seattle Mariners: Yikes…would you believe this team has nearly an $80 million dollar payroll? Felix Hernandez is still awesome, Ichiro is drawing close to the end of his hall of fame career, and Chone Figgins is stealing money every time he gets paid. The Mariners DO have help on the way though in the minor leagues, and Jesus Montero will be fun to watch.

National League East:

1. Philadelphia Phillies: You hear that? That’s the sounds of the Phillies window closing. It’s not closed yet, but it’s rapidly descending. Here’s a list of guys on their roster over 30 – Ryan Howard, Cliff Lee, Chase Utley, Roy Halladay, Jonathan Papelbon, Jimmy Rollins, Joe Blanton, Shane Victorino, Placido Polanco, Carlos Ruiz, and our guy Jim Thome. Still good enough to win the division, but this will be the last time they will do so, before the major overhaul takes place.

2. Miami Marlins: To say the Marlins got a face lift is an understatement. The Marlins are the Heidi Montag of MLB. They’ve thrown a whoooole lot of money at this team, and it wasn’t limited to the roster as the name of the franchise has changed, as well as their stadium location. On paper, the Marlins will be nipping at the Phillies heels for the division, as long as their egomaniac manager doesn’t get in the way. Giancarlo “Don’t Call Me Mike” Stanton, remains one of my favorite players in the game to watch.

3. Washington Nationals: The Toronto Blue Jays National League equivalent. They’re close, probably closer than the Blue Jays are actually, but I see the Nationals ascending next season, not this one. The lineup is pretty good with a healthy Mike Morse, Rick Ankiel, Ryan Zimmerman and Danny Espinosa. The rotation is better than people think, but that’s not what makes the Nationals interesting. We all know that this team will live and die on the arm of Stephen Strasburg and bat of Bryce Harper over the next decade.

4. Atlanta Braves: This sentence hasn’t been written since 1989 – “The Braves pitching rotation is too thin”. That hasn’t happened in quite some time. Still the Braves have the best hitting catcher in Bryan McCann, the swollen Dan Uggla, and two of the more intriguing young players in Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman. I guess the Braves will never be “Terrible”.

5. New York Mets: There are teams that spend money foolishly, then there’s the Mets, who spend money that they never had thanks to Bernie Madoff. The good news is that the payroll is down nearly 50% from last year, and there is actual talent on the roster in David Wright, Johan Santana, Lucas Duda, and Ike Davis. Keeping those players healthy on the other hand, isn’t one of their strengths, as they wait for 2014 to emerge from their own financial ashes.

National League Central:

1. Milwaukee Brewers: No Prince? No problem. The Brewers still have steroid-boy Ryan Braun, and plenty of other sticks in the lineup to drive in runs. Actually anybody who really pays attention to the Brewers knows that their strength really lies in their starting pitching with three guys throwing over 200 innings last season, none of which were Zach Greinke. The Brewers pitching should be enough for them to hang on and win this dogfight of a division.

2. St. Louis Cardinals: The defending champs lost one of the most dynamic players in franchise history this offseason, and they still should be considered realistic contenders for the division. The Cardinals made a very savvy two year deal with Carlos Beltran, who while not Albert Pujols, still has value. Add Beltran to a lineup already featuring Lance Berkman, Matt Holliday, Jon Jay, David Freese, and Yadier Molina, and it’s far from “average”. Their rotation however is a bit iffy. Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are battling injuries again, and those who aren’t injured won’t have Dave Duncan to rely on since Duncan is on a leave of absence. Still, the lineup should be enough for them to at least contend for the wild card.

3. Cincinnati Reds: I’d be very happy choosing the Reds to win the division. The problem is, I keep looking at their pitching and I stop right in my tracks since it is quite ordinary at best. Not to mention I’m not wild about their manager either. Joey Votto is now very rich in addition to be very good, and Jay Bruce is one of the more unheralded left handed sluggers in the game. Newly acquired Mat Latos is about to find out there is a huge difference between pitching at Petco Park, and The Great American Ballpark.

4. Chicago Cubs: Read Here

5. Pittsburgh Pirates: Hey! Andrew McCutchen can play! Nobody else on the roster can however, but that’s neither here nor there. That will change eventually if their much ballyhooed prospects come to fruition. Hey, at least they’re not the Astros.

6. Houston Astros: Ladies and gentlemen, for the second year in a row, here is your official “Worst Team in Major League Baseball”! Besides the awful product on the field, besides the upcoming switch to the American League, the real reason why the Astros suck is their newly minted owner Jim Crane is a raging racist ass bag who coincidentally loves golf (scroll down to the Astros Section). If I had more time, I think I can come up with a good argument for contraction.

National League West:

1. San Francisco Giants: “To Hit, or Not to Hit” is the question the Giants seem to ask themselves every season. Last season they obviously chose NOT to hit as they were dead last in the National League in Runs Scored per game. That is going to change this year however, as new additions Melky Cabrera and Angel Pagan will definitely hit, plus (drum roll) Brandon Belt will be given the reins at first base and I predict he will fulfill the promise he showed last season. A lineup that goes from one actual hitter to five in combination with arguably the best rotation in baseball, means the Giants will win the division.

2. Arizona Diamondbacks: What a weird, yet good team. It’s pretty amazing that this bunch won 94 games last year. Justin Upton is also one of my favorite young players in the game, but other than him, there’s nobody in the lineup that really strikes fear in the hearts of starting pitchers. The Diamondbacks are a pretty good fielding team however, and their rotation is solid if unspectacular. They’ll hang around for a while but eventually fade.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers: You would think a team with the Cy Young Award winner (Clayton Kershaw) and a guy who should have won the MVP (Matt Kemp) on it would do better than 82 wins last year, but they didn’t. Then again with all the turmoil surrounding the embattled and thankfully former owner Frank McCourt, it’s amazing the Dodgers even took the field most nights, in many respects. This season should be more conducive to success for the Dodgers, with better days on the horizon.

4. Colorado Rockies: Like the Reds, I really want to like this team, but then I just look at their pitching and that’s the end of it. I mean seriously, what the hell is Jamie Moyer still doing there? Moyer was pitching when I was in 5th grade! The Rockies have the best shortstop in the game in Troy Tulowitzki, along with Carlos Gonzalez, Todd Helton, and the recently acquired Michael Cuddyer. That won’t be enough to overcome their pitching woes however, and believe me when I tell you, they are WOES.

5. San Diego Padres: While it hasn’t been locked up yet, the Padres are in position to make an $800 million TV deal. That money will do wonderful things for this franchise, which is already ranked 2nd best minor league system thanks to some offseason trades. Until that TV Deal is secured however, Padres fans will be attending games strictly for their awesome ballpark because the product on the field is very ignorable.



POSTSEASON:

AL East Winner: Yankees

AL Central Winner: Tigers

AL West Winner: Rangers

AL Wild Card: Rays, Angels

AL Champion: Rangers



NL East Winner: Phillies

NL Central Winner: Brewers

NL West: Giants

NL Wild Card: Marlins, Cardinals

NL Champion: Brewers



World Series Champion: Texas Rangers

Chicago White Sox 2012 Prediction

Every time I want to resign myself with the notion that this 2012 squad might be the worst White Sox team ever assembled, I quickly think about every Sox team from 1986-1989, and I abandon that notion. THOSE teams set the standard for abysmal, and in comparison to this team, the 2012 White Sox look like the 1927 Yankees compared to say the 1988 team.

Even after all of that, this is still not a good team that will be taking the field on Friday. Much like their North Side counterparts, the White Sox are a team with bad contracts tied to aging veterans. They have no hope of someone coming up from their minor league system to save them, and aren’t one or two, but more likely five trades away from contending again.

Still though, I’m not nearly as pessimistic about their chances of being watchable. That might change after one broadcast of listening to Hawk Harrelson, but for now I don’t think this team is deplorable.

One of the reasons I’m looking forward to this White Sox season is (shh don’t tell anyone) Adam Dunn has looked much better this spring, mainly because he’s taking Walks again. Gordon Beckham doesn’t look as over matched at the plate, and maybe Chris Sale can become a decent starting pitcher? Maybe Robin Ventura could be a good manager? We won’t really know until he gets some proven talent at his disposal, but for now I think he’ll do fine. He certainly won’t be as clueless as Terry Bevington.

All of those things pertain to the short term however, and are quickly tempered by the realization that the long term future of the White Sox is screwed as long as Kenny Williams is responsible for it. I personally am relieved that Ozzie Guillen and his carnival act is now playing in Miami, but I remain disappointed that Kenny Williams was retained – even if Williams may have made a good managerial hire in Robin Ventura.

I have no confidence that Williams will be able to draft the prospects necessary to keep the franchise in contention over the next 5-7 years, and judging by the minuscule returns he received in the trades he has made, I don’t expect him to get good value on the few players he is able to move. I hope I'm wrong.

Who to Watch In The Lineup: I already mentioned Dunn could be good again, and that Beckham could be good FINALLY. I’m curious to see if Brent Morel can learn to take walks in addition to carrying his stark increase in Home Run to Fly Ball Ratio he posted in September over to this season. It's also now or never for Dayan Viciedo. When you get right down to it, the White Sox could actually be good if all of them have "normal" seasons. As simple as that appears to be, it's also not realistic.

Who to Watch Pitch: Chis Sale is the most intriguing one of the bunch, particularly because he's making the difficult transition from reliever to starter. For most of his career, we have been told that Sale possesses Starter Stuff. It will be interesting to see if he can make the switch. John Danks always bears attention but now he's got the 5 year $65 million contract extension. For better or worse Danks is the White Sox present and future of their starting staff.

Bottom Line: I believe this White Sox team will finish 81-81. When they are on their game, they do a lot of things well, but not well enough to win the division. Sort of a "Jack of All Trades, Master of None" type of team. It won't amount to anything more than spinning their wheels, unless this organization finally gets serious about drafting and development.

Drafting and Development is not what Kenny Williams does however.

Chicago Cubs 2012

There have been many different attempts at a creative way to describe this upcoming Cubs season. I prefer the famous line from the film Raging Bull when Jake LaMotta’s brother says “If you win, you win. If you lose, you still win.” Allow me to expound on that.

For the first time in quite some time, the Cubs have zero expectations of winning. Most fans with a brain understand this to be true. The Cubs themselves know this to be true. The reason being is that this organization is still riddled with bad contacts to aging veterans that aren’t nearly worth the paper they’re printed on. There’s no real hope of someone from the minor leagues coming up this year to vault the Cubs into contenders, and the Cubs are not a trade or two away from contention either.

Here is the most important thing to realize and remember throughout this upcoming season. The Cubs have freed themselves from the same organizational pathos that was a staple of the Jim Hendry Era. No longer will the Cubs simply throw money at the biggest available free agents, and expect that to cure everything that ails them. Cubs’ fans finally realized this to be true this winter when (surprisingly to Cubs fans only), the Cubs did not even attempt to sign Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder.

Those free spending days are over, thanks to the hiring of Theo Epstein and his bookworm frat boy crew who are now running this franchise, and they aren’t interested in a quick fix. Theo and the gang are in this for the long haul and any serious Cubs fan should be very thankful. (Please spare me the “104 years and we’re out of patience!” nonsense because you’ll wait as long as it takes, trust me).

Unfortunately for Cubs fans, what Theo wants and needs to do with this team (drafting, trading veterans for prospects, and drafting some more), takes time. As a result, the lineup and rotation are going to be tough to watch this season.

Who to watch in the lineup: Obviously the main draw should be Starlin Castro. His 207 hits last season were a good sign that he can make the necessary adjustments to be a professional hitter in the big leagues. Nobody knows what long time minor league player Bryan LaHair is going to do, but odds are it won’t be much. Cubs’ fans should root heavily for Marlon Byrd to hit the cover off the ball, since that would only help his trade value.

Who to watch pitch: Matt Garza remains the best pitcher on the staff. The better he does, the quicker the Cubs can turn this organization around because he’ll return more prospects in a potential trade. Jeff Samardzija might FINALLY be ready to break through this season, but I’ll believe it when it happens. Carlos Marmol is always a hire-wire act to watch, as he continues to post freakishly high Walks and Strikeouts per 9 innings pitched ratios.

Bottom Line: I believe the Cubs will finish 75-87, give or take a few. Going back to the Raging Bull line, if the Cubs win more than 75 games, great. If they win less, they get higher draft picks which plays right into what Theo Epstein does well, hence “If they win they win. If they lose, they still win.”

I just hope most Cubs fans keep that in mind this season.