251/.372/.506. That is the Slash Line as projected by PECOTA for Adam Dunn in the 2011 Baseball Prospectus. Dunn's projected numbers continue for 36 Home Runs, 95 RBI's, 36 Doubles, 101 Walks, 92 Runs Scored, adding up to a predicted 2.9 Wins Above Replacement.
That projection doesn't really seem to be coming to fruition does it? Don't worry geeks at Thehardballtimes.com, I'm not going to use this post to point out how you're wrong again. I'll save that for another time. This is more of a, "What The Hell Do We Do Now?" posting.
Incidentally, I have to commend Baseball Prospectus because even though their PECOTA projections were incorrect about Dunn, they did write that there is concern Dunn showed slowing reflexes last season, as evidenced by his career low Unintentional Walk Rate (10.5 percent) and career HIGH strikeout rate (25 percent) in 2010. Even though those concerns didn't really adjust their projection that much, I'll give Baseball Prospectus credit for at least acknowledging the possibility of Dunn regressing, versus their contemporaries.
If that didn't make you feel bad enough, consider
today's article at fangraphs. Long the type of hitter Sabermatricians drool over, Dunn's abysmal performance has even made the people at fangraphs throw up their hands in frustration. They point out that this type of slump/funk, after the same amount of career plate appearances as Dunn has, happens at a rate of - Rarely to NEVER - based on
Isolated Power and Strikeout Rates, and of the few players it HAS happened to, they almost never revert to their previous form.
Even stepping away from the statistics doesn't offer any feelings of relief either. Watching Dunn at the plate, is to watch a man be completely lost. Not only does Dunn look like he's well above the 240 lbs he's listed at, he's also swinging at balls out of the zone, and taking strikes right down the middle. Even his obvious attempts to hit a fastball, have him looking like he's never played baseball before. Oh and did I mention he's reached 100 strikeouts already in 67 games? Sorry, I still can't fully escape his statistics...
Is there any reason for hope? Um....well.....maybe? Rob Neyer
seems to think so. In an attempt to be positive, Dunn is 31 years old, which I suppose is better than 34 years old. As the article on fangraphs, points out, Travis Hafner is having a bit of a rebound, and is a similar hitter to Dunn. Plus, while Dunn has definitely never been fatter than he is currently, he can still lose weight, which I have to imagine would improve his bat speed. Pablo Sandoval is nearly ten years younger, but he's showing that losing excess pounds can make a tremendous difference at the plate - although Sandoval has missed time with injury this year.
That's really all I have left in terms of hope for Dunn, because it can't get much worse than this. Dunn is killing the White Sox right now. I'd be remiss if I left out the fact that we've got him for three more seasons after this one, for a total of $56 million per the entire contract. While the contract isn't really paralyzing, the signing of Dunn was viewed as reason enough for the White Sox marketing department to give the edict of "All In".
I'm pretty sure "All In" wasn't planned to have Sox fans eagerly anticipating the return of Dayan Viciedo...
