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Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Chicago White Sox 2012 Prediction

Every time I want to resign myself with the notion that this 2012 squad might be the worst White Sox team ever assembled, I quickly think about every Sox team from 1986-1989, and I abandon that notion. THOSE teams set the standard for abysmal, and in comparison to this team, the 2012 White Sox look like the 1927 Yankees compared to say the 1988 team.

Even after all of that, this is still not a good team that will be taking the field on Friday. Much like their North Side counterparts, the White Sox are a team with bad contracts tied to aging veterans. They have no hope of someone coming up from their minor league system to save them, and aren’t one or two, but more likely five trades away from contending again.

Still though, I’m not nearly as pessimistic about their chances of being watchable. That might change after one broadcast of listening to Hawk Harrelson, but for now I don’t think this team is deplorable.

One of the reasons I’m looking forward to this White Sox season is (shh don’t tell anyone) Adam Dunn has looked much better this spring, mainly because he’s taking Walks again. Gordon Beckham doesn’t look as over matched at the plate, and maybe Chris Sale can become a decent starting pitcher? Maybe Robin Ventura could be a good manager? We won’t really know until he gets some proven talent at his disposal, but for now I think he’ll do fine. He certainly won’t be as clueless as Terry Bevington.

All of those things pertain to the short term however, and are quickly tempered by the realization that the long term future of the White Sox is screwed as long as Kenny Williams is responsible for it. I personally am relieved that Ozzie Guillen and his carnival act is now playing in Miami, but I remain disappointed that Kenny Williams was retained – even if Williams may have made a good managerial hire in Robin Ventura.

I have no confidence that Williams will be able to draft the prospects necessary to keep the franchise in contention over the next 5-7 years, and judging by the minuscule returns he received in the trades he has made, I don’t expect him to get good value on the few players he is able to move. I hope I'm wrong.

Who to Watch In The Lineup: I already mentioned Dunn could be good again, and that Beckham could be good FINALLY. I’m curious to see if Brent Morel can learn to take walks in addition to carrying his stark increase in Home Run to Fly Ball Ratio he posted in September over to this season. It's also now or never for Dayan Viciedo. When you get right down to it, the White Sox could actually be good if all of them have "normal" seasons. As simple as that appears to be, it's also not realistic.

Who to Watch Pitch: Chis Sale is the most intriguing one of the bunch, particularly because he's making the difficult transition from reliever to starter. For most of his career, we have been told that Sale possesses Starter Stuff. It will be interesting to see if he can make the switch. John Danks always bears attention but now he's got the 5 year $65 million contract extension. For better or worse Danks is the White Sox present and future of their starting staff.

Bottom Line: I believe this White Sox team will finish 81-81. When they are on their game, they do a lot of things well, but not well enough to win the division. Sort of a "Jack of All Trades, Master of None" type of team. It won't amount to anything more than spinning their wheels, unless this organization finally gets serious about drafting and development.

Drafting and Development is not what Kenny Williams does however.

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